Ahmad Vahidi was named Iran's IRGC chief, leading to a drop in Reza Pahlavi's entry odds. Entry by June 30 now at 5.5% YES.

Apple’s leadership transition to John Ternus marks a significant shift towards hardware-focused strategies. Tim Cook’s ...

The White House says a good deal with Iran is close, crediting Operation Epic Fury and Trump’s negotiating ability. The ...

Ex-CENTCOM commander warns against US ground operations in Iran. Odds of US forces entering Iran by 2026 drop to 15% YES.

US seized the MV Touska linked to Iranian missile shipments. Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by May 31 at 58% YES.

Apple has named John Ternus as its next CEO, succeeding Tim Cook. The Polymarket contract asking whether Ternus would be the ...

Senate Democrats question Fed chair nominee Warsh's asset divestment plan ahead of his confirmation hearing. Confirmation by ...

Trump's hardline stance on Iran dims peace deal prospects, with a deal by April 22 at 17.5% YES and by April 30 at 36.5% YES.

Japan faces inflationary pressure from disrupted trade routes and higher oil costs tied to the Middle East conflict. Even so, ...

Iran is preparing for private peace talks with the US while publicly hostile. Ceasefire by April 30 at 34.5% YES.

Chinese state media reports that the Fujian aircraft carrier will likely achieve full operational readiness this year. The ...

Starmer blames the Foreign Office for the Epstein scandal and rejects resignation calls. Starmer out by June 30, 2026 at 36.5 ...