Learn how understanding the bond yield curve's signals can inform economic forecasts and enhance your investment decisions ...

There are a lot of recession predictors people watch: Some track imports, some track wholesale prices, some even track light truck sales and Statue of Liberty visits. But one of the most watched ...

Elizabeth Guevara is a personal finance reporter who explains the world of business and economics and how it impacts your finances. She joined Investopedia in 2024. J. David Anke / Getty Images The ...

The inverted yield curve, an age-old recession indicator that has been flashing since July 2022, is proving reluctant to go away. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond was higher than the yield on ...

For much of the last two years, the 2-year US Treasury yield has traded above the 10-year yield. When that happens, it historically has meant a recession is looming. So you’d think that investors and ...

The U.S. Treasury yield curve, one of the most reliable signals of recession, is flashing red again. As of March 2025, the spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields remains inverted, a ...

After a little over two years, the yield curve is back to normal. That is to say, interest rates on longer-term bonds are once again higher than the interest rates of shorter-term bonds like two-year ...

The yield curve shows the difference in the short- and long-term interest rates of bonds and other fixed-income securities issued by the U.S. Treasury. An inverted yield curve occurs when short-term ...

In last week's commentary we spoke about the big bounce of the S&P 500 (SPY) that got us back in the mix of all the key trend lines (50/100/200 day moving averages). And likely we would be stuck in a ...

Explore Treasury yield forecasts: 3‑month bills likely 1%–2%, curve inversion odds, negative-rate risk, and default dangers ...

The 10-year yield is often used as a stand-in for mortgage rates and also shows how investors feel about the economy’s future ...